2017 Playoff Scenarios — Two Weeks Remaining

It’s that time of year again, because eight games are now in the books and only two games remain.

It’s time to see how things are shaping up as far as playoff berths and seedings go for teams in the Northwest Arkansas Democrat-Gazette’s coverage area.

Let me immediately say this: I’m not saying that everything I write on here could happen. I’m just saying there is still a chance, even if it seems far-fetched.

There are also so many scenarios that can happen with two weeks remaining. That is why I mainly focus on the best and worst situations possible this week, while next week’s look will be more detailed as the playoff picture begins to form.

So without further hesitation, let’s begin our look:

7A-WEST

Bentonville High (6-2, 5-0), Bentonville West (8-0, 5-0)

It’s the same for both of them — they are guaranteed a first-round bye and a home playoff game during the quarterfinals. Since they share the same field, it means there are a few additional things athletic director Scott Passmore will have to work out that week.

The only thing remaining is to determine which team gets the top seed and which one finishes as the second seed. That won’t be determined until Nov. 3.

Fayetteville (4-4, 3-2)

The Bulldogs can clinch the No. 3 seed with a win in either of their final two games against Springdale or Van Buren or a Springdale Har-Ber loss.

Fayetteville, however, could fall to the No. 6 seed with two losses IF both Har-Ber and Rogers High win both of their games. If that happens, Har-Ber would be the No. 3, followed by Rogers, Springdale and Fayetteville.

Springdale Har-Ber (5-3, 2-3)

The Wildcats could still finish as high as the No. 3 seed, but only if they win both of their games and Fayetteville loses both of its games.

If Har-Ber loses both of its games, the Wildcats could be eliminated if both Springdale or Rogers win one game AND either Rogers Heritage or Van Buren won both of their games.

Springdale High (5-3, 2-3), Rogers High (5-3, 2-3)

These two teams share the same destiny, with a Week 10 meeting providing the crossroads. They still have a shot at the No. 3 seed, but they would have to win their two remaining games while Fayetteville loses both games and Har-Ber loses one or both of its remaining games.

Either one of them, however, could be eliminated with two losses if Heritage wins both of its games.

Rogers Heritage (1-7, 1-4)

It’s not the best of conditions for Heritage, but the War Eagles still have a chance.

The only problem is they would have to win their remaining games against Bentonville and Har-Ber, then hope Har-Ber also loses to Van Buren. Their chances would be even better if either Springdale or Rogers loses both of its games.

Van Buren (0-8, 0-5)

The Pointers’ only playoff hope lies in wins over Har-Ber and Fayetteville and hope Heritage defeats Har-Ber in a way where the tie-breaker points would favor them.
7A-CENTRAL

Fort Smith Northside (2-6, 1-4)

The Grizzlies still have a shot at a No. 4 seed and a first-round playoff game at home with two wins and a Little Rock Catholic loss in either of its last two games.

Northside, however, is out of the playoffs with two losses because that means Southside has at least two wins, while the Catholic-Little Rock Central winner would have two wins.

Fort Smith Southside (2-6, 1-4)

The Mavericks are on the same path as their cross-town rivals, with the only exception being they will need a little help. Southside needs two wins, as well as a Northside victory over Cabot, in order to get that No. 4 spot.

Southside, however, is just like Northside in the fact that two losses will eliminate the Mavericks from playoff contention.

6A-WEST

Greenwood (8-0, 5-0)

The Panthers have already clinched a first-round playoff bye and can win their conference’s No. 1 seed with a win in either of their two remaining games against Sheridan and Lake Hamilton.

Greenwood could fall to a No. 2 seed only if the Panthers lose both games and El Dorado wins both of its games.

Siloam Springs (2-6, 1-4)

The Panthers could still climb as high as the No. 4 seed and earn a first-round playoff game at home with two wins if Russellville also loses next week to El Dorado.

A loss to Texarkana, however, virtually ends any chance of Siloam Springs making the postseason.

5A-WEST

Alma (5-3, 4-1)

The Airedales control their destiny and can win an outright conference championship if they win their two remaining games.

Alma, however, could be eliminated with two losses if both Farmington and Maumelle win out and Morrilton wins one game OR if Harrison and Morrilton win out.

Farmington (4-4, 3-2), Harrison (5-3, 3-2)

These two teams, which will play each other in Week 10, share the same destiny. Either team could end up a No. 2 seed and get a first-round home playoff game with two wins if the loser of the Alma-Greenbrier game also loses its season finale — Alma to Maumelle or Greenbrier to Vilonia.

Both of them, however, can be eliminated from postseason contention with two losses.

Clarksville (1-7, 0-5)

The Panthers have already been eliminated from playoff contention.

4A-1

Pea Ridge (8-0, 5-0)

The Blackhawks can clinch a No. 1 seed if they win out, but they could clinch it by next week with a win over Huntsville AND a Gravette win over Shiloh Christian.

Pea Ridge could fall as low as No. 4 with two losses IF Prairie Grove and Gravette wins both of their games.

Prairie Grove (7-1, 4-1)

The Tigers can still finish with a No. 1 seed with two wins IF Pea Ridge loses both of its games.

Prairie Grove could fall as low as No. 5 with two losses IF Gravette and Lincoln both win out and Shiloh Christian beats Pea Ridge.

Shiloh Christian (6-2, 4-1)

The Saints can take the No. 1 seed with two wins IF they can finish with more tie-breaker points than Prairie Grove OR Prairie Grove loses one of its two remaining games.

Shiloh Christian, however, could fall as low as the No. 5 seed with two losses.

Gravette (4-4, 3-2)

The Lions could grab a No. 2 seed with two wins IF Prairie Grove loses its next two games.

Gravette could be eliminated from the playoffs with two losses IF Lincoln wins both of its games.

Gentry (4-4, 2-3)

The Pioneers can climb as high as the No. 4 seed with two wins, but they could be eliminated with two losses.

Lincoln (3-5, 2-3)

The Wolves still have a shot at the No. 3 seed with two wins IF Prairie Grove and Gravette lose both of their games.

Lincoln can be eliminated next weekend with a loss to Gentry.

Huntsville (1-7, 0-5), Berryville (1-7, 0-5)

Both teams have been eliminated from playoff contention

4A-4

Booneville (7-1, 5-0)

The Bearcats can clinch the No. 1 seed with a win in either of their last two games against West Fork and Subiaco Academy.

Booneville could fall to No. 2 with two losses if the winner of next weekend’s Ozark-Dardanelle game wins out.

Ozark (6-2, 4-1)

The Hillbillies need two wins and two Booneville losses in order to take the No. 1 seed. Ozark could fall as low as No. 4 with two losses if Dover, which hosts Ozark in Week 10, also defeats Waldron next week.

Waldron (4-4, 2-3)

The Bulldogs can climb to the No. 3 seed with two wins IF Dardanelle loses to Ozark and Pottsville loses one of its last two games.

Waldron could be eliminated next weekend with a loss to Dover IF Pottsville defeats Subiaco Academy.

Subiaco Academy (2-6, 1-4)

The Trojans need two wins, then would need the following things to happen just to get a No. 5 seed — Pottsville would have to lose both of its games, then the loser of next weekend’s Dover-Waldron game would have to lose out.

Subiaco will be eliminated next week with a loss or a Pottsville win.

West Fork (0-8, 0-5)

The Tigers have been eliminated from postseason contention.

3A-1

Elkins (6-2, 4-1)

The Elks can take the No. 1 seed only with two wins AND two Clinton losses.

Elkins could fall to the No. 5 seed with two losses if the following things happen — Yellville-Summit wins its two games,  Greenland also defeats Green Forest and and Melbourne defeats Green Forest next week. Even then, Elks would have to finish with the lowest amount of tie-breaker points when tied with Greenland and Yellville-Summit.

Greenland (5-3, 2-3)

The Pirates still have a shot at the No. 2 seed with two wins if the following things also happen — Elkins also loses to Green Forest, Yellville-Summit loses both of its games and Mountain View loses one of its two games.

Greenland could be eliminated from the playoffs next week with a loss to Elkins if Melbourne defeats Green Forest and Mountain View defeats Marshall.

Green Forest (2-6, 1-4)

The Tigers can take the No. 4 seed with two wins IF Greenland loses to Elkins and Mountain View loses both of its games.

Green Forest will be eliminated next weekend if it loses to Greenland.

3A-4

Charleston (8-0, 5-0)

The Tigers can clinch the No. 1 seed with a win in next weekend’s big showdown against Perryville.

Charleston could fall to No. 3 with two losses IF Atkins wins its two remaining games.

Lamar (3-5, 2-3), Paris (3-5, 2-3)

Both of these teams can finish with the No. 4 seed if they win out, and they play each other in a Week 10 showdown at Paris.

Paris could be eliminated with two losses IF Cedarville also beats Two Rivers in Week 10. Lamar could be eliminated with two losses if Mansfield or Cedarville win both of its games.

Cedarville (2-6, 1-4)

The Pirates could end up with the No. 4 seed with two wins if Lamar defeats Paris in Week 10. Cedarville could be eliminated next week with a loss to Paris and a Lamar win.

Mansfield (2-6, 1-4)

The Tigers can only get the No. 5 seed with two wins IF the loser of the Paris-Lamar game also loses next weekend and Cedarville loses one of its two remaining game.

Mansfield will be eliminated with a loss next weekend.

2A-4

Mountainburg (7-1, 5-1)

The Dragons have locked up the No. 2 seed, no matter what happens in their game against Magazine next week.

Hackett (4-3, 3-2), Lavaca (3-5, 3-2)

These two teams play each other next weekend, and the winner secures the No. 3 seed.

Lavaca could fall to No. 5 with two losses if Magazine wins both of its game. Hackett could be eliminated with two losses if Magazine and Johnson County Westside win both of their games.

Magazine (4-4, 2-3)

The Rattlers could move up to the No. 4 seed with two wins IF the Hackett-Lavaca loser also loses its final game.

Magazine could be eliminated with two losses if either Western Yell County or Johnson County Westside.

Johnson County Westside (3-4, 1-4)

The Rebels could also move up to the No. 4 seed with two wins if Hackett loses to Lavaca and Magazine wins its two games. Westside could be eliminated this weekend with a loss.

Decatur (0-7, 0-5)

The Bulldogs have been eliminated from postseason contention.

Henry Apple

Henry Apple

Henry Apple is a veteran sports reporter for the Northwest Arkansas Democrat-Gazette. His primary beat is Bentonville and Bentonville West, as well as topics that include state schools and the Arkansas Activities Association. During the spring, he handles high school track in Northwest Arkansas. He is a lifelong Arkansas resident.
Henry Apple

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